Just a thought, but baseball really does not make mathematical sense.

Here's the problem: in pennant races, of the 49 times a team has led the best of seven series by 3 games to 1, only 41 times has that team won.

On the surface, that may seem like a pretty good score. But think of it this way: of the 49 times, the trailing team has won the race 8 times. And that is too often. Why? Read on.

First, let's assume the two teams each have a 50% chance of winning any individual game. In that case, the chance that a team wins three games in a row is 50% * 50% * 50%, or 12.5%, or 1 in 8. That calculates to 6.125 out of 49. For it to have happened 8 times is too often!

Hah, you say, thinking back to your days when math class seemed just marginally interesting enough to pay some attention, but there is a margin of uncertainty in such calculations. Sure. But think of this: if one team is ahead 3 games to 1, it is a better team. The chance of the trailing team to win an individual game, based on the previous 4 games, is 25% rather than to 50%. Making the chance of winning three in a row 1.6%. No margin of error is going to make up for the difference between 1.6% and 16.3% (8 out of 49)!