The Mob Chasing Sampras:  Who Will Be Pete's Successor? By Ed Toombs March 1998

 The age factor appears to be crucial. If one looks at the dominant players of the past twenty years, it is clear that they all established themselves at the top at an early age. Borg won the French title at 18; McEnroe won the US Open at 20; Connors was also 20 when he won three grand slam titles; Edberg won the Australian Open at age 19; Courier was already a multiple Grand Slam champion at 21; and of course Sampras was a 19-year-old when he broke through with a win at the US Open. Lendl would appear to be an exception since he did not win a grand slam until age 24. But we should remember that he had already been a major force for several years previous, reaching #4 at age 20 and #2 at age 22.

 What about today's crop of young talent? If we examine the top 25 players according to the February 23, 1998 ATP rankings, we do not see anyone aged 22 or under until we get to Marcelo Ríos (#6, age 22). Further down, we can sport the names of Gustavo Kuerten (#11, age 21), Mark Philippoussis (#14, age 21), Carlos Moyà (#19, age 21), Magnus Norman (#23, age 21) and Nicolas Kiefer (#24, age 20). The rest of the top 100 contains a sprinkling of youthful prodigies like Julián Alonso, Tommy Haas, Dominik Hrbaty and Arnaud Clément.
 

Prospects of the top five

 Here are the top five players chasing Sampras, with some explanations as to why I do not think they will challenge Pete for the top spot, except for a possible short-term lease:

 #2: Peter Korda (age 30)

Upside: The king of the scissor-kick is probably the most deadly shotmaker in the game, and can play effectively from the baseline or at the net. He is one of the few top players not to be intimidated by the sight of Sampras on the other side of the court, and his laser-like returns seem to rattle players like Sampras who rely heavily on their service game. He has few points to defend until Wimbledon.

Downside: His physical condition, always fragile, is showing no signs of solidifying. Groin and sinus operations have helped, but after a few tournaments in a row, something always seems to go wrong with Korda's body. Most recently, his back has been acting up on him. In addition, his wife Regina is expecting a second child, and Korda has been publicly musing about retirement.

 #3: Patrick Rafter (age 25)

Upside: The torchbearer of the serve-volley style, Rafter is capable of smothering opponents with an attacking game. Few points to defend in March, so he could gain significant ground at Indian Wells and Key Biscayne.

Downside: Patrick's energy-intensive style appears to be telling on his body. A sore hip has become chronic, and he becomes fatigued more easily than other players, as he showed at the 1998 Australian Open. A so-so service return, particularly off the backhand side, makes it difficult for him to break serve against top opponents. He will have to start defending major points starting in April and May (Hong Kong and St. Polten finals, French Open semis).

 #4: Jonas Björkman (age 25)

Upside: A devastating return of serve and a solid presence at the net. Superb backhand and a vastly improved forehand.

Downside: A second serve that doesn't scare top players. Still prone to collapsing in big matches, although he has made progress in that area. He will have to play very well to gain ground in the rankings, as he had a lot of quarterfinal and semifinal appearances in the first half of the year. Jonas will likely have to start winning tournaments more often, and soon, in order to challenge.

 #5: Yevgeny Kafelnikov (age 24)

Upside: Perhaps the most versatile player on the tour, with a strong serve, incisive returns, big baseline game, and good volley.

Downside: Injury-prone, Kafelnikov is also prone to hanging his head when he falls behind. Has not managed to build on a 1996 French Open crown achieved at age 22, that should have launched a run at the top spot, but didn't. At 24, he is starting to run out of years in which to live up to his potential. One suspects that 1998 will have to be his career year.

6th to 10th ranked players:

 Best bet: Marcelo Ríos.
"El Chino" has already won a Super Nine (1997 Monte Carlo) and reached a Grand slam final at age 21. His aggressive baseline style, supplemented with nice touch at the net and a tricky lefty serve, should be suited to all surfaces. His apparent unwillingness to fight through tough matches has not yet been totally cured, as his dismal Australian open final showed. But he has made undeniable progress in that area: and as Stefan Edberg showed, a champion's determination can be learned.

 Possibilities of players ranked #7 to #10:
Greg Rusedski: The hard-serving adopted Brit has made huge strides in the past year in developing a more complete game. I suspect that, at age 24, he has reached the upper limits of what it is possible for him to accomplish on the court, but I've been wrong before.
Forget about Chang, Krajicek and Corretja. Michael Chang seems to have extricated himself from his deep slump, but in the big picture his slide appears to be under way. Krajicek has never played well enough, often enough, to look like a number one. And while it's nice to see a tenacious competitor like Corretja in the top ten, it's hard to imagine him climbing much higher than he is.

Out of the pack

 Gustavo Kuerten: The young Brazilian still appears to be in a learning curve, notwithstanding his splendid French Open triumph.

 Mark Philippoussis: Whether he challenges for the top spot depends on his maturing process. His results have been wildly irregular, but one sometimes forgets he is only 21 years old, and that he has one a Super Nine event on clay (Hamburg, 1997).

 Karol Kucera: Miloslav Mecir's pupil has beaten both Sampras and Korda this year, is still fairly young (23) and is shooting his way up the rankings (now #13).

 Andre Agassi: A blast from the past! The former number one is now 28 years old, but has worked very hard at what might be his final comeback. If he can stay positive and motivated for the entire year, he could conceivably be breathing down Pete's neck by year-end. The big test for his state of mind will be between April and July, when he will have to grind it out in locales far from his beloved USA.

 Barring a short-term loan of the top spot to one of the 24-or-older crowd, I suspect the next serious challenge to Pete Sampras's grip on the top spot will come from Ríos (if he can get mentally tougher), Philippoussis (if he can find consistency), Kuerten (if he can refine his technique), or one of the other young lions in the top 100. While we wait for a new young star to stamp his impression on the tennis world, then, Sampras, despite some signs of losing his edge, looks fairly comfortable at the top in 1998.
 

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