With Roland Garros around the corner, what better time than the present to handicap the favourites to claim the big prize?
We?ll look at the three players in each of the men?s and women?s draws we think will be the ones to watch.
Ladies first!
Obviously, it would be foolish not to place defending champion Serena Williams (1st seed) among our top three. While she has not won any of this year?s clay court tourneys, she has still compiled a 7 win, 2 loss record. Her losses, coming as they have to Justine Henin-Hardenne in the Charleston final, and Amélie Mauresmo in the semis in Rome, have been to top drawer players. What might be a cause for concern is the fact that she has not beaten any top drawer players on clay this year, with the pos
sible exception of Lindsay Davenport, notoriously shaky on the clay. Serena has also shown signs of mental weakness we are not accustomed to seeing from her -- witness her failure to serve out the match in the second set of of the Mauresmo match in Rome. However, in the Grand Slams of late Serena has shown far more mental strength than her principal rivals. Conventional wisdom is that clay is the surface on which she is most vulnerable, and we tend to agree.
"I think she's the best clay court player out there," said Kim Clijsters of Justine Henin-Hardenne (4th seed), and we don?t think it was merely an expression of Belgian solidarity. It is hard to argue with Kim?s assessment, given that Henin won two of the three Tier I clay court events this season (Charleston and Berlin), beating solid contenders S. Williams, Clijsters, and Mauresmo along the way. Sensibly, Henin avoided overplaying on the clay this year, unlike 2002 when she turned up exhausted
and ill in Paris and, when she staggered to Roland Garros, was a first round loser to qualifier Aniko Kapros. Justine?s biggest question mark is that she has not proved she can win a major, but the stars may be aligned for a Henin triumph in La Ville Lumičre this year.
Kim Clijsters (2nd seed) may have gone out of her way to vaunt the merits of her fellow Belgian Henin, but Kim will be a force to be reckoned with as well. She joined the clay circuit for the Tier I events in Berlin and Rome, and was runner-up to Henin in the former and champion in the latter. Clijsters has passed Venus Williams in the rankings and is a most deserving number two. On the down side, we note a worrying inability to put away big matches of late: recall that she blew a 5-1 third set l
ead against Serena Williams in their Australian Open semifinal tilt, and also wasted three match points in the Berlin final against Henin. ?I think, maybe, I have a problem with that,? Clijsters said of her late match wobbles, and this is never good baggage to carry into a major.
The others: Venus Williams (3rd seed) may be the second betting choice, but Paris could be a challenge for her. Her career is not exactly in an ascendant mode, and her only clay appearance was at a Tier II in Warsaw, where she retired in the third set of her final with Mauresmo. Speaking of Amélie Mauresmo (5th seed), the Frenchwoman has all the credentials to succeed in Paris except for one: she freezes like a glacier under the pressure of competing in her national Open. We?d like
to believe that she is at peace with herself and a new woman, as a recent Paris-Match profile claimed, but we have a ?show me? attitude about that. Finally, Jennifer Capriati (6th seed), the 2001 Roland Garros champion, has not won a tournament in 16 months and has given us little reason to think that she will rediscover the winner?s circle here.
Our pick: Justine Henin-Hardenne.
The men!
Juan Carlos Ferrero (3rd seed) could well be the odds-on favourite. Clearly the best player on clay at present, ?The Mosquito? won 2 of his 4 clay court tournaments this year before running out of steam and sensibly withdrawing from the final Masters Series event in Hamburg. Having reached last year?s French Open final, where he succumbed to the pressure and lost to Albert Costa, everything leads us to believe he is ready to go one step better this year.
We go down the list of betting favourites here to reach our personal favourites. Guillermo Coria (12th seed) may be just 21 years old, but there was nothing fluky about the fact that he reached the finals of two clay court Masters Series events this year, winning it all in Hamburg. ?El Mago? (?The Wizard?) is lightning fast, consistent, possesses a touch that is at times magical, and is a steely competitor. It?s not at all inconceivable to imagine the young Argentine reaching the final in Paris.
Finally, the reborn veteran Spaniard Felix Mantilla (20th seed) is probably playing the best tennis of his life in 2003, and stands 8th in the Champions Race. Felix, a Roland Garros semifinalist in 1998, not only won the Rome Masters Series this year, he also gave Ferrero his toughest match in Monte Carlo, losing 5-7 in the third set. It will take a lot of game and plenty of guts to get past the self-styled ?Gladiator?, we suspect. We may see a Ferrero-Mantilla fourth round showdown in Paris. T
he bad news for Felix is that Ferrero has won all 6 of their career meetings. The good news for Felix: the law of averages!
The others: All of the following are capable of going all the way, but carry too many question marks to rate as favourites. While it?s always dangerous to write off Andre Agassi (2nd seed) we are all but writing him off. He has not gotten past the quarterfinals in Paris since his championship year in 1999, is not getting any younger at 33 years of age, and with only one match on European clay (a loss to David Ferrer in Rome) will probably be seriously underdone.
We?d like to see 1998 French Open champion Carlos Moya (4th seed) succeed. Notwithstanding his title in Barcelona last month, the classy Spaniard has made a habit of disappointing in the Slams of late. Roger Federer (5th seed) has brilliant talent and can be very effective on all surfaces, but has yet to show he has the will to win a major, or even come close. Three-time champion Gustavo Kuerten (15th seed), still looking to recover the form of his glory days after last year?s hip s
urgery, is coming off his worst clay court season since his initial Roland Garros title in 1997. And number one Lleyton Hewitt (1st seed) has yet to win a title of any kind on European clay. That day will surely come sometime, but it?s hard to see it coming here, especially given the fact that clay court wizards such as Kuerten, defending champ Albert Costa, Tommy Robredo, Gastón Gaudio, Agustín Calleri and David Nalbandian lurk in his quarter of the draw.
Our pick: Juan Carlos Ferrero.
Fasten your seat belts, and enjoy what should be a riveting fortnight in Paris.