Mr. Ed's Champs & Chumps (August 24, 2002)
by Ed Zafian


Once again, we take time in this week's column to analyze the US Open draw.  A gentle warning to readers to not  bet the ranch on these predictions in any tennis contests!


Men's Draw

Top Half - Top Quarter

Champs:   The match that jumps out in this section is between the defending champion, Lleyton Hewitt and American James Blake.  The match could be a third round repeat of last year's US Open which is more remembered for allegations that Hewitt made racially-charged comments towards Blake and a line judge.  Blake has improved over the past year and just captured his first ATP title this month in Washington.  On the other hand, Hewitt's summer has not been the stellar with losses to Mantilla, Moya, and Rusedski as well as a mental meltdown over media obligations.  

Chumps:  Don't expect #8 seed and French Open champion, Albert Costa, to live up to his seeding.  The newlywed has posted a dismally slim 1-2 summer hardcourt record.  It would be no surprise if Magnus Norman, still desperately searching for match wins since coming back on the tour after surgery, knocks the Spaniard out in the first round. 

Top Half - Bottom Quarter

Champs: The two players that stand out in this section of the draw are Carlos Moya and Andre Agassi.  Moya captured the TMS-Cincinnati with a win over Hewitt in the finals and seems to be regaining the form that put him  ever-so-briefly on top of the rankings.  Agassi has been a bit of an enigma of late winning in Los Angeles but falling to Hewitt and more surprisingly to James Blake since then.  But it seems like one can never count out the A-Train in a Grand Slam, especially the US Open.  

Chumps:  After showing so much promise early this year (especially after winning in TMS-Miami), Roger Federer once again is settling into mediocrity.  The Swiss has yet to win a hardcourt match this summer with losses to Canas, Ljubicic, and Massu.  Likewise, one can only wonder how Yevgeny Kafelnikov is still considered the #4 player in the world (though that might not last long once his semifinal showing at the US Open falls off the comptuer rankings).  Kafelnikov has had an equally unimpressive hardcourt season with early round losses to Canas, Schuettler, and Ancic. 

Bottom Half - Top Quarter

Champs: A tough section to pick a winner from, with the list of seeded players questionable for a laundry list of reasons.  So let's go with Greg Rusedski who caught a break with the withdrawals of Canas and Johannson to get seeded at #33.  The Brit lost some tight matches this summer before taking out Hewitt and Haas to capture the Indianapolis title.  Let's not forget that Flushing Meadows was the scene of Rusedski's best Grand Slam showing - an appearance in the 1997 final.

Chumps:  The walking wounded - both physically and mentally:  #3 Tommy Haas (arm and elbow pain, family health concerns), #5 Tim Henman (sore shoulder), #11 Andy Roddick (The great white hype?  Should he be losing matches to the likes of Gambill, Canas, Gonzalez, Meligeni), #17 Pete Sampras (Sampras himself is probably one of the few who think he is a contender this year), #29 Thomas Enqvist (injury withdrawal this week in Long Island). 

Bottom Half - Bottom Quarter

Champs: Not unlike the other section of this half, there appears to be no clear cut choices.  Let's go with a couple of lower seeds, Fernando Gonzalez and Rainer Schuettler for some surprises.  Gonzalez had a heady showing in Cincinnati with wins over Clement, Henman, Krajicek, and Roddick before losing to Hewitt in three sets in the semifinals while Schuettler posted wins over Kafelnikov, Malisse, and Philippoussis.  

Chumps: Not unlike Federer, where has happened to Marat Safin of late?  The #2 seed is 3-2 this summer and has a couple of interesting opening rounds (Kiefer in the 1st and potentially Kuerten in the 2nd).  


Women's Draw

Top Half - Top Quarter

Champs: A bunch of interesting names in this section.  Corina Morariu has the unfortunate task of taking on Serena Williams in the first round.  Nevertheless, even if the Morariu gets double-bageled the true victory is that she is back on the tennis courts after battling leukemia.  Dinara Safina will be looking for some of the success that he brother  Marat has had on Athur Ashe stadium.  Safina won he first title earlier this year and is now ranked in the Top 100. Daniela Hantuchova is the new "it" girl on the Tour and it would not be surprising to see the Czech reach the quarterfinals (if she could get past Justine Henin in the fourth round).  

Chumps: My potentially controversial choice here is Serena Williams. Yes, the same Serena Williams who is #1 ranked player and the current French and Wimbledon champion.  Somewhat cynically, Serena's loss to Chanda Rubin in Los Angeles and subsequent withdrawal from the AT&T Cup in Canada is making me believe that it is time for "big sis" to take home another major trophy.  That said, I still would rate the chances of a third all-Williams Grand Slam final pretty high.  

Top Half - Bottom Quarter

Champs: Lindsay Davenport has had a remarkable showing since coming back on the Tour after an eight-month layoff from knee surgery.  While Davenport may still have some problems with her higher-ranked countrywomen at this year's Open, her path to the later rounds is remarkably free from major challenges. 

Chumps: Arantxa Sanchez Vicario's visit will probably be a short one as she is seeded to face Davenport in the third round.  There has little to buzz about the Barcelona Bumblebee of late with two first round losses this summer to  Granville and Tulyaganova.  A more high profile choice here is Jelena Dokic.  Dokic has had an incredible year, but having played in a staggering 20+ tournaments just this year the physical and mental wear-and-tear is showing for the fifth seed. 

Bottom Half - Top Quarter

Champs: The two faces that I like here are Amelie Mauresmo and Eleni Daniilidou .  Not unlike the Mary Pierce of the past, Mauresmo is a massive collection of untapped talent.  Mauresmo captured a hard-court title in Canada last month and should be a factor in this section of the draw in the later rounds.  Daniilidou has posted wins over the likes of Mauresmo, Henin, Hantuchova, and Dementieva this year and stretched Capriati to three sets at the Australian Open and Wimbledon.  

Chumps: The top seeds in this section are a bit hard to figure out.  Kim Clijsters started the summer off well in Stanford and San Diego but has since lost to Srebotnik and Schett.  Likewise, Jennifer Capriati does not seem to be the dominant force at the moment with losses to Dokic, Sugiyama, and Mauresmo.  Capriati clearly likes the Slams (three of her past four tournament titles have come at the Slams) so there is not too much doubt that the Capriati will be playing in the second week.  

Bottom Half - Bottom Quarter

Champs: As they say, it is deja vu all over again.  Venus Williams has simply dominated the summer hardcourt circuit for the past two years and she is doing so again this year.  There seems to be little standing in the way of the now #2-ranked player, even her younger sister at this stage.  Also, let's welcome back Martina Hingis to the tennis courts and Chanda Rubin to seedings.  S

Chumps: With only two matches under her belt this summer and a re-occurence of a foot injury, it appears that Monica Seles will have a difficult time at this year's Open.  However, seeded to meet the recently-hobbled Hingis in the fourth round who is to say which former #1 and US Open champ will prevail.  



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