One of the interesting aspects of the contest is seeing how our gaggle of experts handicap the field. So here are some observations about our men's picks. Some of the numbers might not add up, but you get the general idea. (Click here to see the analysis of the women's picks).

There are 89 contestants in this contest.

Fancied to win the championship (number of championship picks in parentheses):

• Federer (77)
• Hewitt (4)
• Nalbandian (4)
• Roddick (3)

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Our analysis of the chances of the top seeds
 

(1) Roger Federer

The runaway #1 is our runaway pick to win this tournament. Roger will not have to deal with two of the four players who defeated him last year. Missing from the list are world #2 Nadal (foot) and defending AO champion Safin (knee). In winning the Doha title two weeks ago, the Swiss Mister showed no signs of the ankle injury that troubled him at the end of 2005. His stumble against Haas in the Kooyong exhibition probably means nothing.

- Roger will lose in the final:
   3 (to Nalbandian)
   3 (to Roddick)
- Roger will lose in the semifinal:
   5 (to Hewitt)

(2) Andy Roddick

The world number three must be tired of hearing he's been treading water since his US Open title in 2003. The thing is, people will keep saying it until he starts swimming. That could happen here -- his serve and forehand could compensate for a lack of emotional and tactical rigour if he gets the right draw (i.e., if someone else beats Federer). But danger could lurk in the quarterfinals should A-Rod be matched against his old pal Ljubicic, one of the hottest players on tour late last year. Our consensus is that Roddick will be runner-up to Federer.

- Andy will lose in the final:
   31 (to Federer)
   2 (to Hewitt)
- Andy will lose in the semifinal:
   14 (to Nalbandian)
   5 (to Blake)
   2 (to Ancic)
   2 (to Moya)
- Andy will lose in the quarterfinal:
   23 (to Ljubicic)
   2 (to Berdych)
   2 (to Johansson)
- Andy will lose in the fourth round:
   2 (to Ginepri)
- Andy will lose before the fourth round:
   1 (prefer Dent)

(3) Lleyton Hewitt

The Aussie battler was runner-up here last season, which is the closest he's come so far to winning his national Open. A combination of injuries and fatherhood caused him to play a Williams-sister-like calendar of just 10 tournaments, and losses to the likes of Kohlschreiber and Seppi are not what I would call great preparation. Still, Hewitt's rust could turn to invigorating freshness if he survives the first week. The talented young Murray might have something to say about that in the second round. Despite some support for Doha finalist Monfils in this quarter, most of us feel Hewitt will reach the semis and lose to Federer... again.

- Lleyton will lose in the final:
   1 (to Nalbandian)
- Lleyton will lose in the semifinal:
   58 (to Federer)
- Lleyton will lose in the quarterfinal:
   10 (to Monfils)
   3 (to Coria)
   1 (to Gonzalez)
- Lleyton will lose in the fourth round:
   3 (to Ferrero)
   2 (to Kiefer)
- Lleyton will lose before the fourth round:
   6 (prefer Murray)
   1 (prefer Verdasco)

(4) David Nalbandian

The Argentine all-courter not only finished the 2005 campaign in style in Shanghai, but he also had a great off-season. Huh? Well, David won all four exhibition tournaments he played in December, losing just one set (to Calleri). Have his exploits in China given him the confidence to reach another Slam final on a surface he should like? This might not be an easy task for the Argentine. Among the danger men in quarter are the titlists of last week's tournaments, Nieminen and Blake, as well as Davis Cup hero and Auckland runner-up Ancic. Our expectations for David are all over the map!

- David will lose in the final:
   20 (to Federer)
- David will lose in the semifinal:
   19 (to Roddick)
   3 (to Ljubicic)
   1 (to Johansson)
- David will lose in the quarterfinal:
   3 (to Ancic)
- David will lose in the fourth round:
   20 (to Blake)
- David will lose before the fourth round:
   19 (prefer Nieminen)

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The LOW SEEDS WE LOVE!

Some of the lower seeds will be dangerous. We like the fourth round chances of:

• James Blake (20th seed, 81 votes)
• Mario Ancic (18th seed, 78 votes)

Here are the lower-seeded players selected, in alphabetical order. The seed is given, with the number of fourth-round votes in parentheses:

• Ancic-18 (78)
• Andreev-23 (30)
• Berdych-19 (46)
• Blake-20 (81)
• Dent-27 (1)
• Grosjean-25 (16)
• Kiefer-21 (37)
• Lopez-31 (1)
• Monfils-22 (60)
• Moya-32 (49)
• Nieminen-26 (19)
• Rochus, Olivier-24 (10)
• Stepanek-17 (20)
• Verdasco-28 (1)
• Volandri-29 (3)

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The FABULOUS FLOATERS!

Even with 32 seeds, we always have our eye on unseeded players coming out of the pack. Our most often-picked floater is:

• Tommy Haas (62 votes)

Here are the unseeded players selected, in alphabetical order, with number of fourth-round votes in parentheses:

• Arthurs (1)
• Baghdatis (13)
• Bracciali (1)
• Bjorkman (2)
• Delic (1)
• Djokovic (4)
• Haas (62)
• Hanescu (2)
• Henman (2)
• Hernych (1)
• Karlovic (6)
• Malisse (7)
• Massu (1)
• Mathieu (1)
• Melzer (2)
• Muller (4)
• Murray (6)
• Pavel (2)
• Philippoussis (9)
• Qualifier in Hrbaty's bracket (3) - this would be Oliver Marach, Zack Fleishman or Pavel Snobel
• Santoro (12)
• Schuettler (7)
• Seppi (12)
• Serra (3)
• Srichaphan (14)
• Starace (1)
• Tursunov (3)
• Youzhny (4)

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E-mail Ed Toombs

Check out the analysis of the women's picks!
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